Targets have been hit on 3 of the 4 trades

Well I have to say that I am a bit cheesed off.

Three of the four trades I have identified and placed orders for in the past 48 hours, have hit their respective targets and the fourth trade is up 4%.

Below is a brief summary of what has happened.

Aussie / USD

Entry: 1.0470
Stop: 1.0495
Target: 1.0345

Price retraced to a high of 1.0444 which was 26 pips from my entry.
The trade was not triggered and the target of 1.0345 has been hit for a 5% profit.

Chart below.

 

Aussie / JPY

Entry: 86.80

Stop: 87.15

Target: 85.05

Price retraced to a high of 86.55 which was 25 pips from my entry

The trade was not triggered and the target of 85.05 has been hit for a profit of 5%

Chart below.

GBP / JPY

Entry: 131.90

Stop: 132.25

Target: 130.15

Price retraced to a high of 131 .83 which was 7 pips from my entry

The trade was not triggered and the target of 130.15 has been hit for 5%

Chart below.

Aussie / CAD

Entry: 1.0415

Stop: 1.0440

Target: 1.0290

Price retraced to a high of 1.0395 which was 20 pips from my entry

The trade was not triggered and price has been to within 27 pips of the target.

Chart below.

On another day I would have banked 15% profit.

I would also have a position that had locked in a further 1% profit with the position still open.

I have been a tad unlucky this week.

Things will turn around and profits will start to roll in.

I will post again when I have a good strategy trade

Have a good afternoon

Best Regards

Scott

GBP / JPY Update Thursday 29th March 2012 05:10hrs

GBP / JPY

Price has been up to 131.827 my order was at 131.90. (7.3pips)

I have removed my order to short Sterling Yen.

Price has made its move and has been as low as 131.17.

If I was in this trade my stop would now be at break even.

Chart below.

I am looking for another strategy trade that will allow good risk reward.

Once it has been identified I will post again.

Have a good day.

Regards

Scott

GBP / JPY Wednesday 28th March 2012 20:00hrs

GBP / JPY

Price has formed a double top at 133.50. Price has then broken through the averages and pivot points.

Price has also broken a sloping trend line support.

I am looking to take a short position when price retraces back to the trend line and the moving averages.

Entry levels and chart below

Entry: 131.90

Stop: 132.25

Target: 130.15

I will update when the trade is triggered.

Have a good evening

Regards

Scott

AJ, AU & AC Update Wednesday 28th March 14:45hrs

Aussie / USD.
Aussie / CAD
Aussie / JPY

Unfortunately I have had to remove my orders.

These pairs were not willing to pull back enough for my orders to be triggered.

Price is 35 pips from my target on AU & 45 pips from my target on AC

My orders were in the white boxes shown on the charts.

You will also notice that the stochastic did not move up to the 75 level or overbought.

These pairs are just to weak to retrace to give us a good risk reward entry; before the big push down to support.

Charts Below

Aussie / USD

Aussie / CAD

Aussie / JPY

I am looking for another strategy trade, as soon as I find one I will post again.

Regards

Scott

Aussie / CAD Wednesday 28th March 2012 09:15hrs

Aussie / Cad has been trending down since the end of February 2012.

Chart below

Price has retraced from the lows at 1.0310 back up to a high of 1.0480. This retracement allows me to enter a short when price breaks back down through the moving averages showing a trend continuation.

I am looking to enter short on a pull back to the averages, pivot points and fib levels.

Levels and chart below.

Entry: 1.0415

Stop: 1.0440

Target: 1.0290

I will update once the trade has been triggered.

Regards

Scott

Aussie / USD & Aussie / JPY Wednesday 28th March 2012 06:45hrs

Good morning,

Aussie / USD is trending down making lower highs and lower lows from the end of February 2012.

Chart below.

Price has retraced 75% of the last swing high to swing low and has now broken back down through the moving averages and pivot points.

I am looking to enter a short position on a retest of the averages and pivot points. With an overbought stochastic.

Levels and chart below

Entry: 1.0470

Stop: 1.0495

Target: 1.0345 (5%)

Aussie / JPY

We have a double top at 86.65 and a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Chart below

Price has retraced 61.8% of the last swing move and has broken back through the averages and pivot points.

I am looking to enter a short position on a retest of the averages and pivot points. With an overbought stochastic.

Levels and chart below.

Entry: 86.80

Stop: 87.15

Target: 85.05

I will update when we are triggered into the positions

Have a great day.

Regards

Scott

EJ GJ & NJ Tuesday 27th March 2012 13:45hrs

These trades have not pulled back enough to allow an entry with good risk reward.

Price is making new highs without picking up my orders; therefore I have removed the orders to open

I will look for a better set up else where.

Regards

Scott

EJ, GJ & NJ. Update Monday 26th Match 2012 19:35hrs

Good evening.

We have not yet been triggered into the trades.

This has allowed the averages to catch up with price and I have been able to get a tighter entry.
The risk reward on these set ups is now much better as the stops are that much smaller.

I have adjusted my orders accordingly


The new stop loss and targets are below.

EJ.
Entry: 109.80
Stop: 109.50
Target: 111.30 (5%)

GJ
Entry: 131.35
Stop: 130.95
Target: 133.35 (5%)

NJ.
Entry: 67.65
Stop: 67.35
Target: 69.15 (5%)

Hope you have a great evening.

Regards

Scott

NZD / JPY Monday 26th March 2012 17:10hrs

Kiwi / JPY

This pair is in an uptrend and has retraced back 50% of the last up move in the same way as EJ and GJ have.

Chart below

I am looking to enter a long position on a retracement to overlapping support of moving averages, fib level and pivot point. The stochastic MUST be in order at the time of entry.

Entry Levels and Chart below.

Entry: 67.65

Stop Loss: 67.35

Target: 69.15 (5%)

I will update should be get triggered into the trade and again when I move the stop loss

Regards

Scott

Euro / JPY & GBP / JPY Monday 26th March 2012 16:00hrs

Euro / JPY

This pair has been trending up for most of 2012 and has given good opportunities to buy it on pull backs.

Price retraced 50% of the last move up from 105.60 swing low to the swing high of 111.50.

Chart Below

Price has formed a Double Bottom at 108.50 and has now started to move back up through the averages and pivot points.

I am looking to enter a long position on a retracement to overlapping support of moving averages, fib level and pivot point.

Levels and chart below

Entry: 109.80

Stop loss: 109.30

Target: 112.30 (5%) EJ was trading at 117.50 in July of 2011.

GBP / JPY

This very similar to Euro / JPY

Trend is up, price has pulled back 50% of the last move up and has formed a Double bottom at 130.00.

Chart below

I am looking to enter a long position on a retracement to overlapping support of moving averages, fib level and pivot point.

Levels and Chart below.

Entry: 131.35

Stop loss: 130.75

Target: 134.35 (5%) GJ was trading at 1.3450 in June 2011

I will update when we are triggered into the trade and when I move the stop loss.

Have a good afternoon

Regards

Scott

Weeks review Friday 23rd Mrch 2012 14:15hrs

Hi,

Well I have tried a few trades this week and I just can't get anything to stick.

Either things are too weak to pull back (AUSSIE USD & AUSSIE CAD), or on the pull back the market changes its mind an reverses. (KIWI / USD)

In hindsight I could have been a bit more aggressive on the KIWI / USD trade and taken the short on the way back down, however I don't normally get aggressive and with it being Tuesday I thought I would get a better set up else where. In real time I felt it could break higher as Euro / USD and Cable did this morning.

I finish this week flat and next week will bring more opportunities.

We have some Red news items next week, with Bernanke speaking on Monday and a G7 meeting Tuesday which I am sure will gets us off to a decent start.

5% wont be far away.

Hope you have a good weekend and I will post again on Monday.

Best Regards

Scott

Trade update: Friday 23rd March 2012 08:00hrs

Euro / USD

As mentioned this morning I was concerned that the trade had not moved down by 40 or 50 pips over night. With that in mind I pushed the stop loss to break even, to remove the risk on this position.

The stop has been hit and the position was closed for 0%.

This was a good strategy trade and it ticked all the boxes. Just a shame we didn't get the dollar strength required to push this pair lower.

The initial stop would have been hit, if I hadn't moved the stop to break even for a loss of -1%

Chart below

Cable

This order was removed as I feared the US Dollar was weakening and we would get stopped out.

As you can see from the chart below these fears were realised this morning and it was a good move to cancel the trade.

The stop would have been hit for -1%

Chart below.

To confirm we are flat at this point in time and we are running a 0% profit.

I am still looking for a strategy trade, if I find one we will be in it.

Have a good day

Regards

Scott

Trade Update: Friday 23rd March 05:30hrs

Euro / USD.

STOP TO BREAK EVEN.

We have been triggered into this trade over night and we are short at 1.3205.

Price is in a small channel and I would like to see this break down first thing this morning.

Price is not very far from entry and I would have preferred this trade to be 40 or 50 pips further down

I have decided to move the stop to break even to remove the risk as there is a chance that it could break to the up side and hit the stop loss.

This one needs to go in the London Open or we will be out for 0%

Chart below

 

Cable.

ORDER REMOVED

We have been to within 4 pips of the entry with an over night high of 1.5826.

Unfortunately my order was at 1.5830.

I have removed my order as we should expect price to make its move down towards 1.5770 this morning. If it doesn't then we wouldn't want to be short as the market has some buyers at these levels and we would be stopped out for a loss.

Chart below

 

I will update on any new trades and Euro / USD later today

Regards

Scott

Cable. Thursday 22nd March 2012 14:50hrs

Cable:

Cable, has put in a couple of lower highs. Price has formed a double top at 1.5915 and we have a lower low through the support level of 1.5830 area.

Chart below.

In line with the USD strength that we have had in the market this week cable looks good for a test of support at 1.5600.

I have an order to short cable on the pull back to the previous support level of 1.5830.

Entry details and chart below.

Entry: 1.5830

Stop: 1.5870

Target: 1.5630 5%.

I will update as the trade progresses.

Regards

Scott

Euro / USD Thursday 22nd March 2012 12:45 hrs

Euro / USD

I have been waiting for this chart to offer up a short opportunity on the pair.
The medium term trend is down as shown in the chart below.


Chart Below

Price has formed a double top at 1.3285 and a head and shoulders pattern is also in play.

On the back of news this morning EU has moved down and begun to retrace allowing an entry with a decent risk reward.

Entry levels and Chart below

Entry: 1.3205

Stop: 1.3235

Target: 1.3055

Once the trade has been triggered I will update you and again when the stop loss has been moved.

Regards

Scott

Mid week update: Thursday 22nd March 2012 07:10hrs

So far this week I have tried to short Aussie / USD, Aussie / CAD and Kiwi / USD. I did consider a long on Aussie / JPY but decided against it as the Aussie dollar was so weak.

Below is an update on the trades identified.

To be clear the book is flat at the time of writing.

Aussie / USD.

As detailed in my previous posts I had an order to open at 1.0545 on Tuesday afternoon.
Unfortunately price could only pull back to 1.0520 before making its way down to my target of 1.0395 for 5%.

Chart below.

 

Aussie / CAD.

This is very similar to Aussie / USD in that price did not retrace to the required level to enter the trade with good risk reward.

This trade has been to within 10 pips of the target of 1.0300.

Chart below.

 

Kiwi / USD

With this trade we did get the required pullback to our entry level, however at that point in time we had a short term cross against the direction of our trade. I removed the order with the idea of entering short when price broke back down. I was unable to to do this and price has been to within 30 pips of the target at 0.8030.

Chart below.

 

Aussie / JPY.

Chart below.

This was a good swerve. The trade would have been stopped for -1%

I am still looking for a good set up with good risk reward.

I will update as soon as it has been identified.

Hope you are all having a good week

Regards

Scott

Aussie / JPY Update 21/03/2012 10:49hrs

With Aussie USD in free fall i have decided to remove the order to buy AJ.

Aussie / JPY Wednesday 21st March 2012 08:25hrs

Aussie / JPY

This pair is in a strong uptrend as mentioned yesterday.

Chart below.

We have had a good pull back and price is starting to break back up through the averages with the trend.

I am looking to go long on a re test of the 4hr 20 EMA and the 50% fib of the last thrust move up.
I will also be looking to ensure that the 15 minute and 5 minute stochastic are at an over sold level.

Entry levels and chart below.

Entry: 87.90

Stop: 87.70

Target: 88.90 (5%)

I will update if and when we get triggered into the trade

Regards

Scott

Trade Update. Wednesday 21st March 2012 06:25hrs

Aussie / USD

I have removed the order for the moment as we have a short term moving average cross against the direction of our trade.
This is showing that the market is not ready to come off just yet. I am still looking to get short, but will enter when the market is ready to sell off again. I do not want to swim against the tide.

Aussie / Cad.

Unfortunately this pair did not pull back enough to give me an entry with good risk reward and has made a lower low without triggering my order.
I will wait for price to pull back and enter on the next short term cross back down.

Kiwi / USD.

Same as Aussie / USD. Price is above the Daily Pivot at the time of writing. Looking to get short on the break back down as currently USD is a tad weak and I do not want to go against the market in the short term

We are still flat at this point in time.

Aussie /USD, Kiwi / USD & Aussie / CAD Tuesday 20th March 2012 14:30hrs

Aussie / USD

As mentioned this morning I have been looking to get a short position on my book on this pair.

The averages have now crossed to the down side and I am looking to enter short on the pull back.

If the stochastic is in the overbought zone when price retraces to the 50%fib level I will have an order to open the position.

Charts and levels are below.

Entry: 1.0545

Stop: 10575

Target: 1.0395

Kiwi / USD

As mentioned this morning I have been looking to get a short position on my book on this pair.

The averages have now crossed to the down side and I am looking to enter short on the pull back.

If the stochastic is in the overbought zone when price retraces to the 50%fib level I will have an order to open the position.

Charts and levels below.

Entry: 0.8205

Stop: 0.8240

Target: 0.8030

Aussie / CAD

Aussie Cad has been in a down trend since the end of February 2012.

Price has retrace to 61.8% of the last big moved down and the shorter term averages have crossed back down in the direction of the main trend.

I am looking to enter short with the trend on a pull back to the the short term averages and the 50% fib level

Chart and levels below

Entry: 1.0450

Stop: 1.0480

Target: 1.0350

I will update later today when the trades are triggered and again when I move the stop loss.

Regards

Scott

USD Strength. Tuesday 20th March 2012 08:15

I am monitoring the following instruments. Kiwi/USD, Aussie/USD, Aussie/JPY and Euro/USD

Details are below.

EURO/USD

Following my post yesterday afternoon, The USD weakened and EU rallied to 1.3250 area mentioned in my post on Friday. This has provided me with the pull back from support that will allow a short entry once the averages cross back down through 1.3150.

I do not have levels just yet. I will update once we see the averages cross.

Chart below

Kiwi/USD

Kiwi is still in a down trend and has clear resistance in the form of a triple top at 0.8275.

Chart Below.

 

I am looking for a cross of the averages a pull back and a short position will be taken.

I will update with levels once the cross take place.

Chart below

Aussie / USD

AU is also trending down and I am looking for a short entry.

Chart Below

The averages are looking to cross down this morning / afternoon. Once this has taken place I will look to get short on the pull back to resistance.

Chart below

 

Aussie / JPY

This pair has been trending up for the past 4 months.

Chart below

If we can get a good pull back over the next 24 / 48 hours it would be looking good for a long trade.

I will update on these potential set ups during the day and the rest of this week.

Regards

Scott

Euro / USD Monday 19/03/2012 14:30hrs

EUR / USD has been trending down since price put in a double top at 1.3485 on the 29/03/2012.

Price has now retraced 61.8% of the last thrust down from 1.3290 to 1.3000 and formed another double top 1.3180.

Chart below shows the trend and the pull back to the 61.8% fib level

I am looking to enter a short trade on the break of the short term support, shown by the red trend line on the chart below.

I will update with levels once price has broken the support and begins to pull back for the entry.

Regards

Scott

Weekly summary Friday 16th March 2012

Good morning,

Well it’s been a quiet week so far and this is sometimes the case.

There is little news out in the London session with a few items from the USA around lunch time so if I am honest I don’t see a huge amount of movement to end the week.

This will give the charts an opportunity to reset and consolidate, which will lead to some breaks next week.

Below is a short summary on four pairs showing what has happened this week, followed by a short analysis on my major pairs going forward.

I hope you all have a great weekend and get some decent training in on those bikes lads!!!

Kiwi USD:

As you know I tried to short this pair on Monday. However the market has been rather stagnant and I was unable to get an entry with a good Risk Reward. You will see that price did eventually make an attempt at pushing lower, however, the entry was at 4am chart time and I wasn’t at my desk.
The move did not get to my target and failed to make any significant head way below the previous swing low of 0.8100 price is now back up at the 0.8200 area.

Still looking for shorts with the trend and a good risk reward.

Below is a chart showing the entry at 4am.

Below is a chart showing Kiwi USD as of Friday at 07:00hrs

Cable:

This pair remains in a midterm down trend so I am looking for shorts.

Unfortunately cable has not made serious attempt at the downside all week and now looks boxed in from 1.5750 highs (Triple top) and trendline support below from 1.5600.

However if I see some strong dollar strength across the currency pairs then there is the possiblity of a short through 1.5680/70 area. I will be keeping a watchfull eye on this throughout the rest of today

The chart below shows the trend on cable over the last few weeks

The Chart below shows cable supported (red trendline)

Euro / USD

This pair remains in a midterm down trend so I am looking for shorts.

EU has significant support at the 1.3000 region

I am looking for a retracement to 1.3250 region before looking for a short setup that will allow me to get in to the trade and remove risk before attacking the support below.

The chart below shows the trend on EU over the last few weeks

 

Aussie / JPY

This pair remains in a strong UP trend so I am looking for longs.

AJ has significant resistance at the 88.00 area.

I am looking for a retracement to 86.00 or weekly pivot area before looking for a long setup that will allow me to get in to the trade and remove risk before attacking the resistance above.

The chart below shows the trend on AJ over the last few weeks

Best Regards

Scott.